Bismarck Bookie Blog: Horse Racing Blog featuring free tips and betting strategies

Salisbury 15:00

Wed, 12 Aug 2009 12:19:00 GMT

Today we head over to Salisbury for a 7F Handicap.

Runner

Nina Rose

Avon River

Mnarani

I think it's worth opposing the red hot favorite as I think the odds are short because of the Dettori factor, so I am putting up some fairly big price alternatives. Dutching £100 on the above runners would yield a profit of around £455. I you're looking for another lay I would say laying Flyinflyout in the place market would be a reasonable bet as well.

Good luck out there!

Brighton15:30

Thu, 06 Aug 2009 13:03:00 GMT

Today we head over to Brighton for a 6F Handicap.

Runner

Red Rossini

Fleeting Star

As I suspected yesterdays selections turned up a place but not the winner. Dutching todays runners at the time of posting this would only yield a profit of £62 to £100 stake. So my suggestion would be a win bet on Fleeting Star the odds on favorite. An alternative and perhaps more profitable bet would be a place bet on Red Rossini.

Good luck out there!

Pontefract 15:10

Wed, 05 Aug 2009 13:21:00 GMT

Today we head over to Pontefract for a 8F Handicap.

Runner

Brockfield

Play It Sam

Heading East

Dutching the above runners would yield a profit of £192 to £100 stake. I seem to be suffering from some sort of place picking disease at the moment with my selections. If the odds are big enough to get a decent profit it may be worth your while backing the above selections in the place markets with only a small part of your stake going in to the win market

Good luck out there!

Catterick 15:50

Tue, 04 Aug 2009 13:21:00 GMT

Today we head over to Catterick for a 5F Handicap.

Runner

Buy On the Red

Bonnie Prince Blue

Mandalay King

Only a Splash

Dutching the above runners would yield a profit of £127.81 to £100 stake. So that's just over even money. My system indicates that my top selections have a 50% probability of winning so I would suggest a little bit of caution with this bet. Maybe a bet using 1/2 your normal stake would be in order.

Good luck out there!

A Rocky Start

Fri, 31 Jul 2009 08:59:00 GMT

Well another published selection bites the dust. I had quite a good day at Goodwood winning 4/7 races for a tidy profit. However I need to hone my skills at picking a daily selection for those of you following my blog. I notice I am getting a decent following from Blogged.com, welcome and I hope that you'll forgive the rocky start.

Whilst I didn't find the winner of my previous 2 selections I did manage to find the places with Total Gallery coming second and Inxile third at pretty decent prices so I am positive that it's not the system just bad luck. I am currently scoring todays cards and will post my daily selection a little later today.

Good luck out there!

Goodwood 14:45

Thu, 30 Jul 2009 13:27:00 GMT

Well we got off to a rocky start yesterday. I'll put it down to Murphy's Law. Today we're going for a Goodwood sprint. My selections are:

Runner

Dandy Man

Inxile

Rievaulx World

Jargelle

Sirens Gift

Total Gallery

I think the favorite Borderlescott is over rated. So I'm putting up some big priced contenders. I have dutched £100 on these for an potential profit of £350.

Good luck out there!

Goodwood 14:10

Wed, 29 Jul 2009 12:35:00 GMT

Ok I think I have finalized my betting parameters and believe the selections below have a 75% change of winning.

Runner

Baddam

Som Tala

Tyrrells Wood

Swing Keel

Woolfall Treasure

Always Bold

It's a pretty open race and I would say we have a good chance with the above selections. A stake of £100 dutched across these runners would yield a profit of £115 to Betfair odds at 13:42.

Good luck out there!

Ascot 26 July 2009

Wed, 29 Jul 2009 10:54:00 GMT

Betfair politely provided me with 2 tickets to Ascot for their Betfair Weekend event. This was my first time at the royal course and I must say I was impressed. The whole layout for viewing was brilliant and the course is immaculate.

Managed to win 4/6 races using a combination of systems I have been working on over the past couple of months. So we walked away with a tidy profit that covered our train fare and drinks on course.

Below is a snap of Judge & Jury winning the final race of the day

I am just finalizing some of my system parameters and betting rules and will hopefully be publishing selections again over the coming weeks.

Good luck out there!

The Curse of Inadequate Data

Fri, 10 Jul 2009 09:40:00 GMT

Well after analyzing 3 years worth of data I have realized there are quite a few errors in my historical data. This explains why every time I ran up a system in real time it didn't perform anywhere as well as I believe it should have.

So I have gone back to basics and gathered the data myself. This allowed me to improve the quality of the data as well as it's layout. This makes my queries a lot faster, which means I can analyze much more data when looking at various systems. It also means that analyzing current races becomes quicker allowing me to re-evaluate races just before the off in the event of late non-runners. I have also gained access to a lot more information allowing me to explore many more potential edges than before. So keep your eyes peeled for my new selections.

My current system has thrown up the following selections at Newmarket in the 13:30 8F Handicap

Runner	Score - Projected Odds
Archie Race	21 - 06.43 (11/2)
Sovereign Remedy	17 - 07.94 (7/1)
Spinners End	17 - 07.94 (7/1)
Brief Encounter	16 - 08.44 (7/1)
Thousand Miles	16 - 08.44 (7/1)
Ermine and Velvet	14 - 09.64 (9/1)
Mohtashem	11 - 12.27 (11/1)
Canwinn	09 - 15.00 (14/1)
Kyllachy Star	08 - 16.88 (16/1)
Crackdown	06 - 22.50 (22/1)

I would back the top 3-4 in this race should the odds allow you to get even money if you back all of these selections.

Good luck out there

Bath 16:30 - Lay Tip

Mon, 18 May 2009 12:41:00 GMT

Entreat was well and truly beat at Salisbury (losing by 4.5 lengths) so we're building up a decent pot.

We're off to Bath today and the lay selection is Dice. It's a big field and my system indicates that he's not as strong a gamble as the punters and bookies seem to think. As for where the winner is going to come from, the system says:

Sir Freddie
King's La Mont
Threestepstoheaven
Noordhoek Kid
Rockfella

Dutching these five runners on the exchange this morning would yield a profit of £162 to £100 stake.

Good luck out there!